Mathematical Match Forecasting
Sports Outcome Probabilities
Empirical projections powered by bivariate Poisson goal distributions, non-shot expected goals (xG), rolling team strength coefficients, and pace-adjusted metrics.
Arsenal
Exp Goals: 2.14
VS
Chelsea
Exp Goals: 0.95
Home Win: 56.4%
Draw: 24.2%
Away Win: 19.4%
Model: Poisson Bivariate v3.9
Over 2.5 Goals: 62.1%
Real Madrid
Exp Goals: 1.82
VS
Bayern Munich
Exp Goals: 1.48
Home Win: 46.1%
Draw: 26.5%
Away Win: 27.4%
Both Teams To Score: 68.3%
Home Clean Sheet: 28.0%
Boston Celtics
Rating: +8.4 Net
VS
Milwaukee Bucks
Rating: +4.2 Net
Boston Win: 67.8%
Milwaukee Win: 32.2%
Projected Spread: BOS -5.5
Total Over 228.5: 53.0%
India
Lead: 194 Runs
VS
Australia
4 Wickets Remaining
India Win: 72.4%
Draw: 14.1%
Australia Win: 13.5%
Pitch Degradation Factor: High
4th Innings Target: 260+
League Calibration & Brier Accuracy Audits
| Competition | Sample Games | Brier Score | Win Accuracy | Goal/Pts Margin Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English Premier League | 760 | 0.138 | 76.4% | +/- 0.38 xG |
| UEFA Champions League | 250 | 0.141 | 74.8% | +/- 0.42 xG |
| NBA Basketball | 1,230 | 0.145 | 75.1% | +/- 3.8 Pts |
| ICC International Cricket | 180 | 0.132 | 78.9% | +/- 18.2 Runs |